Research

Here you will find my current and past research projects.

Publications

Abstract
Extant literature concurs that fiscal transfers affect local democracy when they grant subnational governments nontax revenue. Yet there is nonetheless a mismatch between this concept and existing measures, which consider the whole transfers local governments receive, including both tax and nontax revenue. This article studies the Fondo Común Municipal (FCM), the most important intergovernmental grant in Chile, and provides a novel measure of nontax revenue. It uses this measure alongside the whole FCM transfer to test the rentier hypothesis. On the one hand, it shows that both measures increase the incumbent party vote share, although the effect of our measure is smaller. On the other hand, it finds that the FCM transfer has an impact on the probability of reelection and the competitiveness of elections, but this effect disappears when using our measure. Overall, the findings suggest that rents from transfers do not lead to strong electoral dominance in unitary states.

Abstract
Existing research is inconclusive regarding the longer-term economic effects of earthquakes. We examine the medium-run impacts of the 2010 earthquake in Chile, the sixth largest ever recorded, using value-added tax collection as a proxy for economic activity at the municipal level and a measure of local ground-shaking intensity. We find that the affected municipalities suffered a relevant and persistent drop in their economic activity of about ten percent, eight to nine years after the event. We discuss the plausibility of the assumption of conditional parallel trends and show that the overall results are robust to using alternative estimation methods.
Replication Files

Abstract
Social media shapes how people connect, communicate and consume information. As generative artificial intelligence (AI) becomes an increasingly common tool for content creation, many platforms have introduced disclosure requirements to inform consumers when content has been created or significantly edited by AI. Yet, little is known about how such AI-generated content (AIGC) disclosures influence consumer engagement—a key metric for creators, platforms, and brands—in part due to the unique setting of social media relative to other examinations of responses to AI. This research examines whether and why AIGC disclosures affect engagement on social media. Analysis of engagement behavior on TikTok following the introduction of AIGC disclosures and six preregistered experiments find that disclosures reduce consumer engagement. This reduction does not stem from content-related explanations such as lower perceived quality or concerns about manipulation. Instead, we identify a novel process: AIGC disclosures reduce parasocial connection—one-sided emotional bonds between consumers and creators—by signaling reduced effort from the creator. As such, disclosures that signal greater effort can mitigate reductions in engagement. We discuss the implications of these findings for platform policy, content creator strategy, and the future design of AI disclosure practices.

Abstract
We investigate the impact of brand sociopolitical involvement on consumer store visits. We assemble a unique dataset of news articles to identify brand sociopolitical involvement and combine it with foot traffic data from about 150,000 stores operated by 47 major US brands. We then employ the synthetic difference-in-differences model to measure the effect of each identified event. Our results show that, on average, brand involvement in sociopo- litical issues leads to a modest 0.8% decline in foot traffic, with effects varying substantially across events. Through detailed case studies—such as Walmart’s firearm sales restrictions, a Starbucks racial profiling incident, and Chick-fil-A’s change in LGBTQ+ donation pol- icy—we highlight how consumer responses depend on the initiator of the involvement, store neighborhood characteristics, and the brand’s response. Events initiated by corpo- rate leadership tend to produce more variable and less negative outcomes compared to those triggered by employees. Company response to non-corporate incidents—such as is- suing public apologies or conducting employee training—can mitigate negative consumer reactions. Finally, service-oriented brands are more susceptible to negative impacts, likely due to the salience of customer-employee interactions.

Sharing the Road: The Effect of Micromobility Infrastructure on Retail Store Visits (with Lan Luo).

Abstract
This study investigates the impact of bikeway expansions on retail foot traffic in Los Angeles and Seattle from 2021 to 2023. Using detailed foot traffic data and bikeway expansion information, we use a fixed-effects model to estimate changes in store visitation due to changes in bikeway proximity. Our results indicate that bikeways increase monthly foot traffic by 3.1% to 4.1% for nearby businesses. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring urban planning to the diverse needs of retail sectors and underscore the economic potential of micromobility investments in revitalizing urban retail environments.

Abstract
This paper studies the effects of a large and gradual increase in the Chilean school day over students' academic achievement. We exploit a gradual and exogenous variation produced by the reform with an innovative measure of exposure to longer school day treatment. Using longitudinal data at an individual level and a fixed-effects strategy, we find that in the long run, this reform had no relevant effect on students’ standardized test scores nor higher education enrollment. However, this paper found heterogeneous response to additional instructional time by gender, type of school, and socioeconomic status. These results are robust to the inclusion of several covariates and insensible to the cohort selection.

***********************